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| (Artwork by: Craig Tracy) |
A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to its staff of analysts that butchers love turkeys “with increased statistical confidence.”
The butcher will keep feeding the turkey until a few days before thanksgiving. Then comes that day when it is really not a very good idea to be a turkey.
So, with the butcher surprising it, the turkey will have a revision of belief—right when its confidence in the statement that the butcher loves turkeys is maximal.
What can a turkey learn about what is in store for it tomorrow from the events of yesterday? A lot, perhaps but certainly a little less than it thinks, and it is just that 'little less' that may make all the difference.
The key here is such a surprise will be a Black Swan event; but just for the turkey, not for the butcher.
We can see from the turkey story the mother of all harmful mistakes: mistaking absence of evidence (of harm) for evidence of absence, a mistake that tends to prevail in intellectual circles.
Not being a turkey starts with figuring out the difference between true and manufactured stability.
